Prof. Dr.-Ing. Theo KÖTTER, University of Bonn, Germany
This paper was for
the first time presented as a keynote presentation at the plenary session of
the FIG Working Week 2004 in Athens, Greece 25 May 2004.
This article in .pdf-format.
Abstract
The 21st century is the century of the cities and of urbanisation
(Hall/Pfeiffer 2001). According to The State of World Population 2001, an
actual report from the United Nations Population Fund, roughly 2.8 billion
people live already in cities and by 2015, that number will have risen to
3.9 billion. The total population is increasing by 280.000 people per day.
Nearly three-quarters of them will be inhabitants of the developing world.
While in developed countries urbanisation has mainly taken place in the
second half of the 19th century, developing countries are in the middle of
their urban growth now. In Europe already 76 % of the population live in
cities. Urbanisation has come to stand still and we can notice a process of
dis-urbanisation and sub-urbanisation caused by a high rate of motorisation
combined with prosperity and the development of traffic and communication
infrastructure.
Compared to this in the developing countries, the urbanisation is
increasing rapidly and will continue during the next decades. For the first
time in 2007 more people live in cities than in the rural areas. The highest
growth will occur mainly in the cities of Asia and Africa, that are now more
than two-third rural, will be half urban by 2025. Never before urban
population has expanded so fast because of the progress in agriculture,
science of nutrition and medicine. For example Dar es Salam, Tanzania, has a
growth rate of 6% per year, which leads to a doubling of population every 13
years. A high birthrate combined with an increasing migration from the rural
areas that is reinforced by the so called “push-factors” (unemployment, low
standards of housing and infrastructure, lack of educational facilities) and
“pull-factors” (economical opportunities, attractive jobs, better education,
modern lifestyle) lead to the very dynamic growth process. Most of this
growth is taking place in the poor quarters of the cities. One can imagine
the challenges to manage cities in a sustainable manner when their
population doubles every 13 years.
The number of megacities, which have 10 million or more residents, is
increasing worldwide: 1950: 4, 1980: 28, 2002: 39, 2015: 59. Two third of
them are situated in developing countries, especially in South-East-Asia. In
2002 already 394 million people live in megacities, 246 million of them in
developing countries, more than 215 million in Asia. In the year 2015 the
total population of megacities worldwide will be about 604 million and the
further rate of growth will be high, as the development of Mexico City, São
Paulo, Seoul, Bombay, Jakarta and Teheran shows which population has tripled
between 1970-2000. According to the estimation of the UN concerning the
number of megacities in 2015, Bombay (22.6 mill. inhabitants), Dhaka (22.8),
Sao Paulo (21.2), Delhi (20.9) and Mexico City (20.4) will be five of the
worldwide six biggest megacities each with much more than 20 million
inhabitants. 100 years ago London (6.5) has been the greatest city (one
million more inhabitants than New York), today it is a shrinking town.
Megacities 2015
Source:
http://www.megacities.uni-koeln.de/documentation/megacity/map/MC-2015-PGM.jpg
The rapid process of urbanisation and the growing number of the
megacities, cause a lot of different ecological, economical and social
problems and risks. This impacts cause challenges for urban policies and
urban planning strategies to manage the development in a sustainable way,
when the population in some cities doubles every 10 to 15 years.
The reason that the agglomeration and metropolitan areas as well as and
megacities come into the international focus of policy and science are their
serious impacts on the global environment like the enormous land
consumption, air pollution, water scarcity, poverty, social segregation and
vulnerability. As the numerous national and international conferences on
urbanisation and megacities show, there is an obvious need for more and
better urban development strategies, long term land policy and forceful
urban management.
2. EFFECTS AND IMPACTS OF URBANISATION AND MEGACITIES
The following characteristic of megacities has to be mentioned as the
typical features that bring these agglomerations into the focus of science,
policy and economy. These characteristics imply a lot of serious risks, but
also potentials and opportunities for the regional and global development:
- Density: Megacities show the highest density of inhabitants,
industrial assets and production, social and technical infrastructure.
Metropolitan areas and especially megacities become more and more the
centres and nodal points of the global economy. With their important role
as centres of political and economic decisions they are promoters of
national and international developments. Furthermore in this areas lots of
highly qualified and “inexpensive” skilled labour are available and also
the concentration of capital stock make them attractive for investments.
Urban Agglomerations and megacities generate a lot of income and their
local economies have an importance for their rural surroundings. It is no
coincidence that in megacities worldwide have increasing part of the GND
(e.g. Thailand: 20% of the population lives in Bangkok, but 70% of the
GND).
- Dynamic: Megacities are characterised by highest dynamic in the
fields of spatial and demographic growth, change of land use and
consumption of land for settlement purposes, that mostly take place in
absence of urban planning and on foreign plots. Also the formal and
informal urban economic sectors are on a high dynamic level. The local,
regional and global markets and the connection with the international
economic circulation induce various increasing economic activities, so
that megacities have the economic potentials and power to initiate
economic growth also in the regions around the urban areas.
- Settlement, infrastructure and land tenure: In the most
agglomerations and megacities urban planning and public infrastructure can
guide the urban development in order to achieve a proper sustainable
structure only very partially. The extension of cities is always in
advance of urban development work and the provision of public facilities.
Beside the “proper city”, which is in the focus of strictly conventional
urban planning, all the other quarters and districts of the agglomeration
and megacities grow up outside the law and without the benefits of urban
planning. Especially the informal housing areas and in many times also
illegal housing areas (squatters), that are build up by the migrants
themselves lead to an extensive settlement structure. The illegality of
those residential areas results mainly from the land tenure system.
- In many cases there is a lack of an efficient infrastructure for the
public and private traffic, of proper garbage removal and also of sewage
systems with wastewater purification. Most city-dwellers have no
sanitation facilities and rainwater drainage systems are totally
inadequate. This situation has serious consequences on the environment and
public health. About 1.5 billion people live in slums and squatters.
- Socio-economic disparities: In megacities we can recognise a
wide range of social standards and social fragmentation, social-cultural
conflicts because of the different background of the immigrants and a
great number of urban poor, which are bad provided with public facilities
and infrastructure and their housing areas are often edged out by stronger
economic purposes and land use. The development and extension of cities is
accompanied with mounting urban poverty. Roughly a quarter of the
population of the developing countries (1.3 billion people) are living in
situations of absolute poverty on less than one dollar per day (UNDP
1997). A resident in a poorer housing area in Chicago has better living
conditions than about 80 % of the megacity-dwellers in the developing
countries. E.g. in Calcutta, Madras, Bombay and Delhi more than 50 % of
the inhabitants are living in squatters. The growing socio-economic
disparity within the megacities and the lack of social cohesion is the
most serious explosive charge.
- Risks and vulnerability: Considering the density and number of
inhabitants and also the accelerated development megacities run highest
risk in the cases of men made and natural disasters. Related to the
population we have a high rate of consumption of natural resources
especially land for new settlement areas, water and energy. The result is
an ecological strain of the environment with serious pollution of the air,
water and soil. Air pollution, mainly caused by traffic, traffic
congestion and industrial production, in most cities of developing
countries exceeds the environmental standards considerable. The annually
losses of the world’s GND determined by air pollution is estimated between
0.5 and 2.5 %. Another considerable problem is the provision of the
residents with clean drinking water.
- At many times the location of new squatters of rapid growing cities
and agglomerations is not suitable according to a proper and safe urban
development. The main reason is, that e.g. in the 1990’s, 60 to 70 % of
urbanisation was unplanned, often in areas, which are adjacent to
industrial zones, known to be highly seismic or flood prone. The
accelerated and uncontrolled growth has contributed to the ecological
transformation of the cities and their immediate surroundings (pressure on
scarce and sealing increase the volume and speed of rainfall runoff that
make many cities more vulnerable to flash floods). Furthermore other
factors depending on the local circumstances contribute to the urban
vulnerability: lowering or rising water table, rising sea level,
earthquakes, storms and land slides. Through lack of choice the ongoing
urbanisation forces more and more populations to settle on those disaster
prone areas.
- Governance: One of the greatest challenges of agglomerations
and megacities is their governability and one can recognise a crisis of
urban government in this. The experiences show that the possibilities of
traditional forms of centralised governance with top down strategies are
restricted because of the extension, highly dynamic and highly complex
interactions within the megacities and also with their surroundings. In
the case of spatial planning, decentralisation and innovative planning
processes with intensive participation are necessary.
All in all agglomerations and megacities are not only risk areas of the
global change, but they also provide opportunities. They are the engines of
the economy and in many cases, they are also precursors of the urbanisation.
3. APPROACHES AND PRINCIPLES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AGGLOMERATIONS AND
MEGACITIES
3.1 Models of Sustainable Development
The development of megacities and sustainability seems to be contrasts,
that cannot go together at the same time. The high rates of land and energy
consumption, the severe pollution of air, water and soil at present and the
ongoing social fragmentation are not in compliance with the aims of a
sustainable development. To cope this risks and challenges, considering the
undamped growth, a spatial concept with a decentralized structure should be
underlied that includes the urban and the surrounding rural areas. In the
past, different models of sustainable development have been discussed, but
there is no general admitted structure, that solves the risks of megacities.
With view on megacities and agglomerations a regional settlement structure
has to be designed which set up on the elements density, mixing of different
land uses, polycentrality and capacity of public mass transport systems and
public facilities. These are the prerequisites for achieving the ecological,
social and economic targets of sustainability.
The priority must be to slow down the urban growth. Therefore the living
conditions and the economic basis in the rural areas must be strengthened,
to prompt the inhabitants to stay there. Therefore it’s a vital necessity to
promote new forms of cooperation between cities and between the cities and
the villages at the regional level.
3.2 Strategies of Urban Development
To achieve a proper development of agglomerations and megacities a
comprehensive plan is indispensable, that provides guidelines and principle
goals for the urban development as well as for the development of the and
that also provides the basis for construction immediate plans for economic
and social development, area plans, district plans, detailed plans etc. In
accordance with the sustainability, the integration and coordination of
urban and rural areas with the central city should be a main principle. This
requires a “multi-center”, “multi-axis” and “multi-level” urban spatial
structure. For example the comprehensive plan of Shanghai (1999 – 2020)
lines out five levels that refers to five scales. The urban system is
composed of the Central City, New Cities, Central Towns and the Ordinary
Towns and Central Villages.
In case of the urban development of megacities a shift of urban policy
and also of planning strategies is fundamental. This includes a legalisation
and registration of informal settlements slums and squatters. Furthermore
considerable social improvements and an access to schools and other
educational institutions are necessary. Self-help housing improvements must
be strengthened combined with the access to land to enhance the living
condition, the identification with the quarter and at least the engagement
for the (local) community.
The final declaration of the Heads of State and Government and the
official delegations from the countries attending the 2nd United Nations
Conference on Human Settlements, Habitat 11, held in June 1996 in Istanbul,
proclaimed the “right to adequate shelter for all” as one of the key themes
of the conference. A billion people are today without a decent home and a
hundred million are completely homeless. This gives a measure of the needs
and the singular importance of the housing problem. Access to housing is now
recognized as being central to social cohesion and a key factor for
development.
3.3 Long-term Land Use and Land Management Strategies
A long-term land use and land management strategies need reliable
economic conditions and authoritative legal regulations. Therefore the
reform of land tax must be discussed considering land policy, fiscal, social
and ecological aspects. A sustainable urban development requires to prevent
land fragmentation and also social fragmentation. Considering the rapid
growth and that 60 to 70 % of the urbanisation are uncontrolled a
comprehensive urban planning has to be developed and monitoring system must
be established. Therefore the designation and mobilisation of building land
is one of the long-term tasks to be addressed by the local authorities.
To improve the housing situation at long-term, first the problems of land
management and land use have to be solved. This requires legal instruments
for more secure access to land and planning techniques for urban development
and facilities. This frame must be provided at the national level by the
State on the national level. If an adequate political, legal and
institutional frame has been established, civil society can play an enabling
role to implement the land policy and land administration.
In practice the greatest challenge is not elaborating a comprehensive
plan of the city or regional development, but providing sufficient urban
land for housing and other purposes at a reasonable price and also the
indispensable technical infrastructure. Urban land manager must be capable
of evolving a coherent vision of the cities future and also mobilising
private investment both for housing and for urban facilities and services.
3.4 Cost and Energy Saving Facilities and Innovative Transport Systems
The provision of infrastructure for the purposes of transport,
communications, energy, drinking water, sewage purification and sold waste
treatment contribute the economic development, make the territorial areas
more competitive and attractive and promote regional economic integration
and social cohesion. But the developing countries cannot support their
cities in this fundamental tasks, because they have to cope with severe,
long-term budgetary problems. That’s why there will be a widening gap
between the growing demand and the current provisioning of water and
sanitation in the megacities with serious problems for the heath of the
residents. The current financial gap is estimated to be US $ 16 billion a
year. Especially public-private partnerships can bring efficiency gains and
cost-effectiveness in the water sector.
To influence city-dwe11ers' living conditions and economic development
the public authorities have to be involved in producing and managing
technical urban infrastructure facilities and services such as roads,
transport, electricity, telecommunications, water, sanitation and waste
treatment and also social facilities and services in the strategic fields of
education and health. In megacities and agglomerations of the developing
world there is considerable leeway to be made up and it will take a long
time to achieve this with the 200 billion dollars invested each year by
developing countries (4 % of their national product). E.g. only the needs of
India have been estimated at 50 billion US $ per year. The main problem is
to mobilise new external resources to finance gradual improvements of the
urban infrastructure. Funds for new infrastructure are required and also for
the maintenance and rehabilitation of existing infrastructure to avoid
deficiencies. In this fields priorities must be given: Financing and
management of existing facilities or investments in future facilities?
The systematic extension of public transport systems into the surrounding
is necessary to slow down the migration from the rural areas. A rail transit
network with different speed and high capacities, passenger transit pivots
and parking lots are important elements of an efficient mass public
transport system. E.g. Shanghai has designed an urban transportation plan
which consists of high speed rail lines, urban metro lines and urban light
railways in order to limit the quantum of cars, motorcycles and powered
bicycles. By means of high-tech, the research and development of
intelligence transit systems should be forced. This is at the same time a
policy reduce energy demand and also the emission of greenhouse gas. But in
many cases efficient public mass transport systems are inevitable for these
cities.
3.5 Good Governance
With the ongoing growth of urban agglomerations and megacities, good
governance within the cities become highly complex. One of the main problems
in governing megacities and agglomerations is their big extension and high
population. These cities have to co-ordinate their activities through local
units. To shape policy in a local way it will be necessary to divide
megacities and agglomerations in manageable territorial areas and to
decentralise some responsibilities to the local actors and initiatives. At
the same time it is important to ensure and to organise solidarity between
all urban territorial areas and the rural surroundings and the central
government. But there is still a need for city or even regional bodies
responsible for city-wide or region-wide tasks like mass transit, waste
disposal or structural planning.
In many countries decentralisation of urban government is in progress and
forced with heavy emphasis. The aim of this comprehensive movement is to
improve urban living conditions by addressing needs as directly as possible
and to enable city-dwellers to participate in city matters. It is a question
of efficiency of administration and also of political strategies that
involves reorganising the political authorities and administration
responsibilities between the central and the local authorities. In the
decentralising process, a balance must be found between internal
socio-political concerns and the common development strategy of the
megacity.
But decentralisation by its own is not yet a guarantee for good
governance. Decentralization requires also capacity building for an
efficient local urban management. Inadequate mobilization of local resources
is a major obstacle for managers in the performance of their tasks. Local
tax levying capacities are poor owing to the lack of any organized
collection and control system. Taxation methods are often discretionary and
do not encourage taxpayers to comply. House and land tax legislation and tax
of urban economic activities tend to be unproductive because they have not
kept pace with economic and social development.
This strategy is largely determined by the objectives and requirements of
city-economic and budgetary balances, by the land use planning strategy, the
financial policy, credit regulations, education and health policy, land and
tax legislation. No foreign model of decentralisation is transferable and it
is possible for countries to be enriched by other experiences and best
practices, but they have to develop their own appropriate model.
4. CONCLUSIONS
Megacities and urban agglomerations are complex and dynamic systems that
reproduce the interactions between socio-economic and environmental
processes at a local and global scale. Despite of their importance for
economic growth, social well-being and sustainability of present and future
generations, urban areas have not received the level of attention they
require in the study of global environmental change. The increasing number
and extent of recent natural and men made disasters illustrate the
devastating consequences of some of the above mentioned trends and impacts.
Global environmental change covers a diverse and broad range of issues.
Megacities and urban agglomerations are certainly major source for changes
in land use and land cover, and they are major users of energy, natural
resources and food, but they offer a unique set of opportunities to advance
the creation of new conceptual framework for research. Especially an
integrative approach of the physical, social and ecological aspects of urban
growth on one hand and urban planning and land management on the other hand
is missing so far. Interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary perspectives will
improve a better understanding of the process of urbanisation and megacities
and their governance.
REFERENCES
- Bundesamt für Bauwesen und Raumordnung (1999): Urban Future.
Preparatory expertises (Overviews) for the Word Report on Urban Future for
the Global Conference on the Urban Future URBAN 21, Bonn.
- Hall, Peter; Pfeiffer, Ulrich (2001): URBAN 21. Der
Expertenbericht zur Zukunft der Städte. Stuttgart, München.
- Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (2003): Megacities III,
Handlungsmodelle und strategische Lösungen. Kongress 24.-26.11.2003,
Wesseling.
- Magel, Holger; Wehrmann, Babette (2001): Applying Good
Governance to Urban Land Management – Why and How? – In: Zeitschrift für
Vermessungswesen, Heft 6/2001.
- Toepfer, Klaus (2003): Zukunftsbeständige Stadt- und
Regionalentwicklung: Leitmotiv für die Problembewältigung der Megacities.
Vortrag im Rahmen des Kongresses „Megacities III, Handlungsmodelle und
strategische Lösungen“ in Wesseling.
CONTACT
Theo Kötter
Institut für Städtebau, Bodenordnung und Kulturtechnik, ISBK
Der Rheinischen Friedrich – Wilhelms – Universität Bonn
Nussallee 1
D-53115 Bonn
GERMANY
Tel. + 49 228 732 610 ext. 12
Fax + 49 228 733 708
E-mail: koetter@uni-bonn.de
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